Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies - #24
Overview of all studies: Because of the largely
unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to
understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching
an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series of
thirty essential studies
is organized into five sections, covering fundamental theory, possible
technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential, product capabilities, and
policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions are stated, and because our
understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting the studies
is urged.
CRN is actively looking for researchers interested in
performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director
Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on
the proposed studies.
| Study #24 |
What
beneficial or desirable effects could this have? |
| |
Explore
positive factors that will promote the development and deployment of
molecular manufacturing (MM). |
| Subquestion |
How much could
the technology reduce illness and disability? |
| Preliminary answer |
Simple things
like water filters and fast, cheap, easy medical sensors could make a big
difference. At first, rapid diagnosis of disease would allow effective
quarantine. Later, the ability to rapidly develop products should accelerate
medical research and speed the process of finding cures; large-scale
quarantine operations may become unnecessary even for new diseases. And the
ability to monitor a body in detail and in real time should reduce the risks
of new therapies, streamlining research still further. Prosthetic devices,
including sensory prosthetics, would be greatly improved. |
| |
Advanced
automated treatment devices could be made very cheaply, allowing
semi-skilled delivery of medical care. Think of automatic defibrillators in
airports. Now project that approach into devices with wide-spectrum
real-time biochemical sensors that can dispense appropriate medicines. |
| |
Surgical robots
could become far smaller, more capable and automated, less invasive. Even
without bloodstream robots, a catheter-based approach can be used to clean
important blood vessels or repair cartilage. A smart catheter could be
smaller than a hair, and used by a general practitioner in an outpatient
context. |
| Subquestion |
To what extent
could the technology alleviate underdevelopment? |
| Preliminary answer |
A general-purpose
self-contained factory could bootstrap a region's productivity in a matter
of weeks. The main limiting factor would be the availability of designs to
solve local problems. But see Gershenfeld on "fab
labs". |
|
Subquestion |
Could this help
with food and water shortages? |
| Preliminary answer |
Diamond-building
chemistry could not directly make food. But it could make greenhouses,
allowing more reliable food production with less resource usage. It could
also make water filters and the required energy supply (solar), both for
increasing fresh water supplies and treating runoff or wastewater. |
| Subquestion |
How much and in
what ways (e.g. replacing manufacturing, infrastructure, extraction) could
it alleviate environmental problems? |
| Preliminary answer |
Most of today's components that rely
on extracted materials, such as metals and rare earths, could be emulated
with higher performance by nano-built systems. Carbon-based products could
be disposed of by clean combustion. More automation means
fewer people have to work in factories, reducing transportation
requirements for both people and materials. More efficient agriculture could
reduce soil loss, water use, and agricultural runoff. Cleanup of existing
problems would be easier with better and cheaper sensors and robotics. |
| |
Some serious
thinkers are concerned about a global environmental collapse in the next few
decades, even apart from the Peak Oil problem. Large-scale use of MM could
alleviate much environmental pressure, and actively correct many problems. |
| Subquestion |
Which natural
disasters could it prevent or alleviate? |
| Preliminary answer |
Easier access to
space makes it much easier to deal with asteroids. Also, vastly cheaper
construction of telescopes makes it easier to spot them. Large-scale
engineering projects could defuse volcanoes and even calderas by turning
them into massive geothermal energy projects. Stronger construction could
resist earthquakes and hurricanes. Also, large-scale construction of
automated aircraft/helicopters could suppress wildfires and aid in rapid
evacuations. Better sensors would allow better prediction of weather and
climate. (For
more, see
Our Molecular Future
by
Douglas Mulhall.) |
| Subquestion |
How much could
these benefits reduce social unrest? |
| Preliminary answer |
Poverty,
contagious and parasitic disease, and hunger could be drastically reduced at
extremely low cost. To the extent that these fuel social unrest, the
application of these technologies would reduce the unrest. However, new
problems such as social disruption and boredom may emerge. |
| Subquestion |
How much cost
savings does this represent? |
| Preliminary answer |
Most sources of
product cost would virtually disappear. Even design cost might decrease, as
shown by the
Open Source software movement. Indirect costs of technological activity,
such as pollution, could be substantially reduced. |
| Subquestion |
How much
commercial incentive is suggested by these questions? |
| Preliminary answer |
The difference
between production cost and user value of nano-built products will be
astronomical. This provides a high incentive for developing the
technology—and then manipulating policy so as to maintain artificial
scarcity. Artificial scarcity would cancel many of these benefits. |
| Conclusion |
Molecular manufacturing could be a major benefit to humanity, saving
lives, mitigating environmental problems and hazards, and reducing misery
enough to substantially reduce social unrest. However, this all depends on
policy.
|
| Other studies |
1.
Is
mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology?
2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and
underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
3. What is
the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid
manufacturing and products?
6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
7. What
applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist?
8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
9. What will be required to develop biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and
products?
11. How rapidly will the cost of development decrease?
12. How could an effective development program be structured?
13. What is
the probable capability of the manufacturing system?
14. How capable will the products be?
15. What will the products cost?
16. How rapidly could products be designed?
17. Which
of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper?
18. What new products will the system make accessible?
19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution?
20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and
government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms
races and unbalanced development?
21. What effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics?
22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products
be limited?
23. What effect will this have on policing?
25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties?
26. What are the disaster/disruption scenarios?
27. What effect could this have on geopolitics?
28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does
all this suggest?
29. What policies toward administration of
molecular manufacturing does all this suggest?
30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
|
| Studies should begin
immediately. |
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as
possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for
implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin
immediately. |
